Sonora
Opening science.
Sealed, attested, proven, settled.
A forecast’s quality is established by cryptographic proof against real-world ground truth — never by reputation.
Seal
A prover commits a sealed forecast. The predictions never leave the seal — only a cryptographic commitment goes on record.
Attest
Every forecast is tied to one verified identity. The record is immutable — misses can't be deleted or left behind.
Prove
When ground truth arrives — grid load, rainfall, yield — accuracy is proven in zero knowledge.
Settle
The proof settles into a public track record. The model stays private; its quality does not.
See exactly how good a model is — before you pay.
Every track record on Sonora is proven, not reported.
Proven track records
Accuracy, calibration, Brier score — every metric verified against ground truth.
Compare models, not promises
Rank provers on settled proofs over identical windows. Lower Brier wins.
Pay for access, not claims
Buy the forecast stream once the proof satisfies you. Nothing is taken on faith.
Monetize your edge without giving it away.
Your predictions never leave sealed. Your accuracy is public.
Sealed submissions
Forecasts are committed, never revealed. The edge stays yours.
A track record that travels
Each settled proof compounds into verifiable, portable reputation.
One identity, one record
Verified identity keeps the market sybil-proof. Misses stay on the record and weigh on future payments — honesty is structural.
Cryptography does the trusting.
Zero-knowledge proofs
Succinct proofs attest a model's accuracy without revealing a single prediction. Buyers verify; nothing leaks.
Ground-truth oracles
Settlement data — observed weather, grid load, yields — is sourced independently and recorded immutably.
Free-market Auctions
Access to a forecast stream is priced by open auction. A prover's settled record — hits and misses alike — sets what the next forecast earns.